Monday Morning Briefing

JUL06

UK Results FY: Ashley House, Digital Marketing Group; 6M: AFC Energy, St Modwen Properties
Selected US No major announcements scheduled
Economic indicators Japan: May preliminary leading indictor (0600 BST)

JUN07

UK Results FY: Clapham House Group; 6M: IDOX 
Selected US No major announcements scheduled                                    
Economic indicators UK: May industrial/manufacturing production (0930 BST); France: May trade balance (0745 BST); Germany: May factory orders (1100 BST)

JUL08

UK Results FY: Invista Foundation Property Trust, Touchstone Group
Selected US Q2: Alcoa, Pepsi Bottling Group; Q3: Family Dollar
Economic indicators UK: June GDP (0001 BST), June consumer confidence (0001 BST), June BRC shop price index (0930 BST); US: W/e 02/07 crude oil inventories (1530 BST), May consumer credit (2000 BST); EU: Q1 GDP (1000 BST); Germany: May industrial production (1100 BST); Japan: June current account (0050 BST), May key machinery orders (0050 BST)

JUL09

UK Results FY: Begbies Traynor Group; 6M: Computacenter    
Selected US Q2: Chevron
Economic indicators UK: May trade balance (0930 BST); US: W/e 02/07 initial jobless claims (1330 BST); Germany: June final CPI (0700 BST), May current account (0700 BST), May trade balance (0700 BST)

JUL10

UK Results No major announcements scheduled
Selected US Q2: Progressive Corp
Economic indicators UK: June PPI (0930 BST); US: June import prices (1330 BST), May trade balance (1330 BST), July preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey (1455 BST); France: May budget balance (0745 BST), May current account (0745 BST), May industrial/manufacturing production (0745 BST); Italy: May industrial production (0900 BST); Japan: June domestic CGPI (0050 BST); Spain: June flash CPI (0800 BST)

Highlights of the past week

A strong start across world financial markets ran out of steam last week after renewed fears about the strength of a possible economic recovery. The FTSE and Dow both dived close to 2.5% on Thursday after the release of weaker-than-expected US jobless numbers hit investor confidence. The US unemployment rate climbed to 9.5% in June after 467,000 jobs were cut – a considerable jump from the 332,000 figure for May. The jobless rate is now at its highest level in 26 years. Eurozone figures out the same day failed to lift optimism after the 16-member unemployment rate also reached 9.5% in June – its highest level for ten years. Meanwhile the ECB maintained the eurozone’s interest rate at 1% on Thursday, despite Tuesday’s negative euro inflation reading. 

At home, the OECD warned on Monday that the UK’s return to economic health will be slow, and that UK unemployment will exceed 10% before any upturn. The UK outlook was dealt another blow on Tuesday, after the ONS released revised first-quarter GDP data showing the UK economy contracted by 2.4% during the first three months of 2009. This was far worse than the initial estimate at -1.9%, with the ONS citing weak activity in construction and manufacturing. Adding to a downbeat few days for UK economic data, Thursday's CIPS survey evidenced a weakening in construction activity in June, with output contracting at a faster pace than in the previous two months.

The week’s company updates did alleviate some gloom, with retailers Marks & Spencer, HMV and Asos all unveiling upbeat trading statements. On Wednesday M&S reported a smaller-than-predicted 1.4% slide in like-for-like sales in the quarter to June, contrasting favourably with a 4.2% fall in the previous quarter. On Tuesday music and games retailer HMV said the closure of high street rivals Woolworths and Zavvi helped it record an 18% leap in annual group profit to £61.2 million. At the start of the week Asos unveiled a 93% jump in annual pre-tax profit to £14.1 million, with the online fashion retailer benefiting from a large rise in international sales.

The week ahead

Thursday’s interest-rate announcement by the BoE is sure to garner interest at home this week. Speculation is rife that the MPC, expected to keep interest rates on hold at 0.5%, may add another £25 billion to its quantitative easing programme in an attempt to boost the British economy. Other significant data includes trade balance figures at home and in the US and the second GDP estimate for the first quarter in the eurozone on Wednesday.

A quiet earnings calendar in the US features quarterlies from Alcoa, Pepsi Bottling Group and energy company Chevron this week. At home, results are due from technology companies IDOX, Touchstone Group and Computacenter.