Financial Events | Economic Indicators

A handy guide to keep you attuned to the major economic indicators that are scheduled for release in the UK, US, eurozone, Australia and Japan today. Increase your awareness without wasting time reading hefty economic reports.

Updated daily, this page offers information on which key economic indicators you should keep an eye out for, when they will be released (London time), and how they are likely to affect the markets.

Sign up for our free six-week TradeSense educational programme to access our complete databank of economic indicators. The databank resides in the client area of our website and contains a full list of reports for every economic indicator covered by us.

Japan-Industrial Production Index (Jan)

Released by: Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (monthly)

Time: 04.30

What is it?

The Industrial Production Index reveals the volume of goods produced by Japan’s mining and manufacturing industries.

Why is it important?

It is a widely studied leading indicator that can help predict future movements in the general health of the economy.

The monthly releases are issued in preliminary form, and then in revised form two weeks later. The release is published monthly, one month after the reporting month. It is revised two weeks later.

Japan - Capacity Utilization (Jan)

Released by: Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (monthly)

Time: 4:30

What is it?

It measures the level at which Japanese manufacturers make use of their production capacity such as factories and machinery.

Why is it important?

The utilization level is a reflection of demand and the state of the economy. A high figure suggests inflationary pressures as there is high demand for sparse resources.

Conversely, this may also increase capital investments which support future growth. The headline figure is the change from the previous month shown as a percentage.

Eurozone - Industrial Production (Jan)

Released by: Eurostat (monthly report)

Time: 10.00

What is it?

A report that measures the change of output of the industrial sector (eg, manufacturing, energy, etc).

The figure may be adjusted to take into account seasonal variations in production and/or for the number of working days in the given period.

Why is it important?

The industrial sector constitutes one quarter of the GDP of the euro area, but is responsible for far more than 25% of the volatility in GDP. Economic downturns/upturns are usually manifested more in the industrial sector than other sectors that contribute significantly to GDP.

What are market expectations?

A Bloomberg survey of analysts gives a median reading of a month-on-month change of +0.7%, compared with the previous release of -1.7%. Another Bloomberg survey forecasts a year-on-year change of -1.6% compared with the last release which reported -5.0%.

U.S. - Advanced Retail Sales (Feb)

Released by: US Census Bureau (monthly report)

Time: 13.30

What is it?

A measure of sales of goods to consumers at retail outlets. The data is gathered via a survey of a random sample of retailers and is calculated as the total receipts of retail sales in nominal dollars excluding returns, taxes and finance charges.

The headline figure is reported as a percentage change from the previous month.

The retail sales figure is also reported excluding automobile sales. As a result of their high cost, auto sales make a substantial contribution to retail sales, accounting for close to 25% of the figure. Consequently, variations in automobile sales can produce high fluctuations in the report. Auto sales are also subject to seasonal changes, thus easily distorting trends. A more accurate picture of retail sales can be achieved, therefore, by removing the auto component.

Why is it important?

Consumer spending constitutes two thirds of GDP and is consequently a major component in economic growth. Retail Sales accounts for one third of consumer spending, meanwhile, and hence can be considered a reasonable measure of consumer demand in advance of the release of GDP data.

The data in this report therefore has the potential to substantially move the financial markets, particularly stocks in the retail sector. Furthermore, the data is released swiftly, following the month to which it pertains by no more than two weeks.

Generally, a strong (positive) figure would prove beneficial for the financial markets, as it indicates solid economic growth. Ideally, the economy walks a finely balanced line between solid growth and excessive growth. Retail Sales that are too strong, therefore, can create inflationary worries.

The figures can also help to paint a picture about different types of businesses within the retail sector and such trends can be used to identify specific trading opportunities ahead of company's reports.

What are market expectations?

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg gave a median consensus of -0.2%, compared with last month's figure of +0.5%. The figure less autos was predicted to be +0.1% from +0.6% previously and less autos and gas this was estimated to come in at +0.3% from +0.6% previously.

U.S. - University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (March)

Released by:University of Michigan (monthly report)

Time: 14.55

What is it?

A report that assesses consumers' thoughts on the economy and their personal finances, determined via a survey of consumers from 500 households. The preliminary figure encompasses roughly 60% of the data used in the final figure, and is not officially meant to be released to a wide audience. Preliminary figures are regularly leaked to the press, however, and therefore accessible to the financial industry.

Why is it important?

Although the survey polls fewer consumers than the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index, and is not as well established, the University of Michigan Survey is acknowledged as being one of the primary indicators of US consumer sentiment and often moves the financial markets on release.

The headline figure is determined by subtracting the percentage of unfavourable responses from the percentage of favourable responses and a low or falling number is taken to be an early sign of a downturn in the economy. Consequently, investors follow this indicator closely in order to gauge the strength of the economy.

What are market expectations?

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg yielded a median forecast of 74, compared with the previous release of 73.6.

U.S. - Business Inventories (May)

Released by: US Census Bureau (monthly) Time: 15.00

What is it?

Business inventories are the dollar amount of inventories held by manufacturers, wholesalers, and retailers. The level of inventories in relation to sales is an important indicator of the near-term direction of production activity.

Why is it important?

Business inventory data is valuable in tracking the state of the economy.

A rising level of inventories can indicate that sales may grow in the near future. Investors can foretell whether production demands will increase or decrease in the coming months by looking at the ratio of inventories to sales.

For example, if inventory growth lags sales growth, then manufacturers will have to boost production lest commodity shortages occur.

However, if sales do not meet expectations, a lull in production may be necessary while those inventories are worked down.

The stock market likes to see healthy economic growth because that translates to higher corporate profits. The bond market prefers more moderate growth that won't generate inflationary pressures.

What are market expectations?

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg gave a median consensus of +0.2%, compared with last month's figure of -0.2% previously.